Blogging the Bookshelf

Blogging my bookshelf – one book at a time

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Entries Tagged as 'Risk'

Risk and Uncertainty – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 16th, 2012 · Comments Off on Risk and Uncertainty – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Data, Prediction

Risk, as first articulated by the economist Frank H. Knight in 1921, is something that you can put a price on. Say that you’ll win a poker hand unless your opponent draws to an inside straight: the chances of that happening are exactly 1 chance in 11. This is risk. It is not pleasant when […]

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“Measuring Risk – The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine” – Michael Lewis

July 28th, 2011 · Comments Off on “Measuring Risk – The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine” – Michael Lewis · Economics, Policy

He gave a talk in which he argued that the way they measured risk was completely idiotic. They measured risk by volatility: how much a stock or bond happened to have jumped around in the past few years. Real risk was not volatility; real risk was stupid investment decisions.

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