Blogging the Bookshelf

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Entries Tagged as 'prediction'

Where Objective and Subjective Reality Intersect – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction” – Nate Silver

November 25th, 2012 · Comments Off on Where Objective and Subjective Reality Intersect – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction” – Nate Silver · Prediction, Statistics

Prediction is difficult for us for the same reason that it is so important: it is where objective and subjective reality intersect. Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to […]

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Bayes’ Theorem – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 21st, 2012 · Comments Off on Bayes’ Theorem – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Policy, Prediction, Statistics

Bayes’s theorem is concerned with conditional probability. That is, it tells us the probability that a theory or hypothesis is true if some event has happened. Suppose you are living with a partner and come home from a business trip to discover a strange pair of underwear in your dresser drawer. You will probably ask […]

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The Narrative and Political Prediction – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 17th, 2012 · Comments Off on The Narrative and Political Prediction – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Electoralism, Journalism, Newspapers, Politics, Prediction, Psychology, Spin, The Media

You can get lost in the narrative. Politics may be especially susceptible to poor predictions precisely because of its human elements: a good election engages our dramatic sensibilities.

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Hedgehogs and Forecasting – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 17th, 2012 · Comments Off on Hedgehogs and Forecasting – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Elitism, Prediction, Statistical Inference, Statistics

In fact, a little knowledge may be a dangerous thing in the hands of a hedgehog with a Ph.D. One of Tetlock’s more remarkable findings is that, while foxes tend to get better at forecasting with experience, the opposite is true of hedgehogs: their performance tends to worsen as they pick up additional credentials. Tetlock […]

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Out of Sample Problems – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 16th, 2012 · Comments Off on Out of Sample Problems – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Causation and Correlation, Data, Prediction, Statistics

But forecasters often resist considering these out-of-sample problems. When we expand our sample to include events further apart from us in time and space, it often means that we will encounter cases in which the relationships we are studying did not hold up as well as we are accustomed to. The model will seem to […]

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Risk and Uncertainty – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 16th, 2012 · Comments Off on Risk and Uncertainty – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Data, Prediction

Risk, as first articulated by the economist Frank H. Knight in 1921, is something that you can put a price on. Say that you’ll win a poker hand unless your opponent draws to an inside straight: the chances of that happening are exactly 1 chance in 11. This is risk. It is not pleasant when […]

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Somethign That Cannot Possibly Go Wrong – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 15th, 2012 · Comments Off on Somethign That Cannot Possibly Go Wrong – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Prediction

“The major difference between a thing that might go wrong and a thing that cannot possibly go wrong is that when a thing that cannot possibly go wrong goes wrong it usually turns out to be impossible to get at or repair,” wrote Douglas Adams in The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy series.

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The Predictable Housing Bubble – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 15th, 2012 · Comments Off on The Predictable Housing Bubble – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Data, Economics, ICT, Policy

Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize–winning economist, wrote of the bubble and its inevitable end in August 2005. “This was baked into the system,” Krugman later told me. “The housing crash was not a black swan. The housing crash was the elephant in the room.” Ordinary Americans were also concerned. Google searches on the term “housing […]

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What You Can’t State Your Innocence, Proclaim Ignorance – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 14th, 2012 · Comments Off on What You Can’t State Your Innocence, Proclaim Ignorance – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Data, Prediction, Quotes

Nobody saw it coming. When you can’t state your innocence, proclaim your ignorance: this is often the first line of defense when there is a failed forecast.

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Connecting Subjective and Objective Reality – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 14th, 2012 · Comments Off on Connecting Subjective and Objective Reality – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Data, Prediction, Statistical Inference, Statistics

Prediction is important because it connects subjective and objective reality. Karl Popper, the philosopher of science, recognized this view. For Popper, a hypothesis was not scientific unless it was falsifiable—meaning that it could be tested in the real world by means of a prediction.

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