Blogging the Bookshelf

Blogging my bookshelf – one book at a time

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Entries Tagged as 'Polling'

Ask Them About Their Neighbours – “The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns”, Sasha Issenberg

December 5th, 2012 · Comments Off on Ask Them About Their Neighbours – “The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns”, Sasha Issenberg · Electoralism, Multi-culturalism, Psychology

One night Binder asked, “Do you think your neighbors would be willing to vote for an African-American for president?” Some of the voters answered no, and Strasma watched them closely. Something in that response—perhaps a feeling of being liberated to publicly share an unpopular opinion—convinced him that the people who acknowledged their neighbors’ racism might […]

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The Limited Accuracy of Polls in Primary Contests – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 18th, 2012 · Comments Off on The Limited Accuracy of Polls in Primary Contests – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Electoralism, Politics

During the 2008 Democratic primaries, the average poll missed by about eight points, far more than implied by its margin of error. The problems in polls of the Republican primaries of 2012 may have been even worse. In many of the major states, in fact—including Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Washington, Colorado, Ohio, Alabama, and […]

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The Unimportance of Political News – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 18th, 2012 · Comments Off on The Unimportance of Political News – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Electoralism, Journalism, Newspapers, Politics, Spin, The Media

Political news, and especially the important news that really affects the campaign, proceeds at an irregular pace. But news coverage is produced every day. Most of it is filler, packaged in the form of stories that are designed to obscure its unimportance.* Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise. […]

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The Narrative and Political Prediction – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 17th, 2012 · Comments Off on The Narrative and Political Prediction – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Electoralism, Journalism, Newspapers, Politics, Prediction, Psychology, Spin, The Media

You can get lost in the narrative. Politics may be especially susceptible to poor predictions precisely because of its human elements: a good election engages our dramatic sensibilities.

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Public Ownership – “The Unfinished Revolution: How New Labour Changed British Politics Forever” – Philip Gould

January 4th, 2012 · Comments Off on Public Ownership – “The Unfinished Revolution: How New Labour Changed British Politics Forever” – Philip Gould · Campaigning, Electoralism, Means and Ends, Policy, Political Communication, Politics, Progressive Politics, Socialism, UK Labour, United Kingdom

Joyce Gould, the Labour Party’s director of organisation, and Patricia Hewitt had asked MORI’s Bob Worcester to conduct some focus group research for the ‘Jobs and Industry’ campaign. ‘We decided we needed some focus groups on language to see if the voters were understanding a word of what we were saying,’ Hewitt said. And Bob […]

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