Blogging the Bookshelf

Blogging my bookshelf – one book at a time

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Entries Tagged as 'Experts'

The Narrative and Political Prediction – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 17th, 2012 · Comments Off on The Narrative and Political Prediction – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Electoralism, Journalism, Newspapers, Politics, Prediction, Psychology, Spin, The Media

You can get lost in the narrative. Politics may be especially susceptible to poor predictions precisely because of its human elements: a good election engages our dramatic sensibilities.

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Hedgehogs and Forecasting – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 17th, 2012 · Comments Off on Hedgehogs and Forecasting – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Elitism, Prediction, Statistical Inference, Statistics

In fact, a little knowledge may be a dangerous thing in the hands of a hedgehog with a Ph.D. One of Tetlock’s more remarkable findings is that, while foxes tend to get better at forecasting with experience, the opposite is true of hedgehogs: their performance tends to worsen as they pick up additional credentials. Tetlock […]

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Tetlock’s Study of Expert Prediction – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 12th, 2012 · Comments Off on Tetlock’s Study of Expert Prediction – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Data, Journalism, Newspapers, Politics, The Media

A long-term study by Philip E. Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania found that when political scientists claimed that a political outcome had absolutely no chance of occurring, it nevertheless happened about 15 percent of the time. (The political scientists are probably better than television pundits, however.)

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