Blogging the Bookshelf

Blogging my bookshelf – one book at a time

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Entries Tagged as 'Bias'

Out of Sample Problems – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 16th, 2012 · Comments Off on Out of Sample Problems – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Causation and Correlation, Data, Prediction, Statistics

But forecasters often resist considering these out-of-sample problems. When we expand our sample to include events further apart from us in time and space, it often means that we will encounter cases in which the relationships we are studying did not hold up as well as we are accustomed to. The model will seem to […]

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Numbers Have No Way of Speaking For Themselves – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 12th, 2012 · Comments Off on Numbers Have No Way of Speaking For Themselves – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Causation and Correlation, Data, Modelling, Prediction, Statistical Inference, Statistics

The numbers have no way of speaking for themselves. We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning. Like Caesar, we may construe them in self-serving ways that are detached from their objective reality.

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Men May Construe Things After Their Fashion – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 11th, 2012 · Comments Off on Men May Construe Things After Their Fashion – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Data, Prediction, Psychology, Quotes, Statistical Inference, Statistics

[But] men may construe things after their fashion / Clean from the purpose of the things themselves,” Shakespeare warns us through the voice of Cicero—good advice for anyone seeking to pluck through their newfound wealth of information. It was hard to tell the signal from the noise. The story the data tells us is often […]

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Turn out the Lights – “The Unfinished Revolution: How New Labour Changed British Politics Forever” – Philip Gould

January 4th, 2012 · Comments Off on Turn out the Lights – “The Unfinished Revolution: How New Labour Changed British Politics Forever” – Philip Gould · Campaigning, Journalism, Newspapers, Politics, The Media, UK Labour, United Kingdom

The Sun destroyed Neil and Labour with an eight-page attack entitled ‘NIGHTMARE ON KINNOCK STREET’, warning, ‘He’ll have a new home, you won’t’, ‘A threat to proud history’, ‘My job will go’, ‘Prices set to jump’, ‘Do not trust his judgement or his promises’, and ‘Lest we forget – Hell caused by last Labour government’. […]

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The Desirability of Telling Lies – “Fifty Orwell Essays” – George Orwell

November 13th, 2011 · Comments Off on The Desirability of Telling Lies – “Fifty Orwell Essays” – George Orwell · Journalism, Newspapers, Politics, The Media

Although other aspects of the question are usually in the foreground, the controversy over freedom of speech and of the press is at bottom a controversy of the desirability, or otherwise, of telling lies. What is really at issue is the right to report contemporary events truthfully, or as truthfully as is consistent with the […]

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Bias Towards Conflict – “All too Human” – George Stephanopoulos

September 5th, 2011 · Comments Off on Bias Towards Conflict – “All too Human” – George Stephanopoulos · Journalism, Politics, Spin, The Media

The media bias I detected most often in the White House was neither liberal nor conservative but a tendency to play up conflict and controversy.

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