Blogging the Bookshelf

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Entries Tagged as 'Bayesian Analysis'

The Limitations of Statistical Significance – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 22nd, 2012 · Comments Off on The Limitations of Statistical Significance – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Data, Statistical Inference, Statistics

The bigger problem, however, is that the frequentist methods—in striving for immaculate statistical procedures that can’t be contaminated by the researcher’s bias—keep him hermetically sealed off from the real world. These methods discourage the researcher from considering the underlying context or plausibility of his hypothesis, something that the Bayesian method demands in the form of […]

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Bayes’ Theorem – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 21st, 2012 · Comments Off on Bayes’ Theorem – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Policy, Prediction, Statistics

Bayes’s theorem is concerned with conditional probability. That is, it tells us the probability that a theory or hypothesis is true if some event has happened. Suppose you are living with a partner and come home from a business trip to discover a strange pair of underwear in your dresser drawer. You will probably ask […]

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Out of Sample Problems – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 16th, 2012 · Comments Off on Out of Sample Problems – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Causation and Correlation, Data, Prediction, Statistics

But forecasters often resist considering these out-of-sample problems. When we expand our sample to include events further apart from us in time and space, it often means that we will encounter cases in which the relationships we are studying did not hold up as well as we are accustomed to. The model will seem to […]

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