Blogging the Bookshelf

Blogging my bookshelf – one book at a time

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Entries Tagged as 'analysis'

Bayes’ Theorem – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 21st, 2012 · Comments Off on Bayes’ Theorem – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Policy, Prediction, Statistics

Bayes’s theorem is concerned with conditional probability. That is, it tells us the probability that a theory or hypothesis is true if some event has happened. Suppose you are living with a partner and come home from a business trip to discover a strange pair of underwear in your dresser drawer. You will probably ask […]

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The Diminishing Returns of Additional Information – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 13th, 2012 · Comments Off on The Diminishing Returns of Additional Information – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Causation and Correlation, Data, Modelling, Statistical Inference, Statistics

Our biological instincts are not always very well adapted to the information rich modern world. Unless we work actively to become aware of the biases we introduce, the returns to additional information may be minimal—or diminishing.

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A Model for Political Prediction from Gulliver’s Travels – cited in “Fifty Orwell Essays” – George Orwell –

November 13th, 2011 · Comments Off on A Model for Political Prediction from Gulliver’s Travels – cited in “Fifty Orwell Essays” – George Orwell – · Journalism, Leadership, Politics, The Media

“there is the professor at the School of Political Projectors who “shewed me a large Paper of Instructions for discovering Plots and Conspiracies”, and who claimed that one can find people’s secret thoughts by examining their excrement: Because Men are never so serious, thoughtful, and intent, as when they are at Stool, which he found […]

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