Blogging the Bookshelf

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Entries Tagged as 'Prediction'

Where Objective and Subjective Reality Intersect – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction” – Nate Silver

November 25th, 2012 · Comments Off on Where Objective and Subjective Reality Intersect – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction” – Nate Silver · Prediction, Statistics

Prediction is difficult for us for the same reason that it is so important: it is where objective and subjective reality intersect. Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to […]

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The Accuracy of Climate Models – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction” – Nate Silver

November 24th, 2012 · Comments Off on The Accuracy of Climate Models – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction” – Nate Silver · Environmental Policy, Policy, Politics, Prediction, Statistics

Emanuel’s concerns are actually quite common among the scientific community: climate scientists are in much broader agreement about some parts of the debate than others. A survey of climate scientists conducted in 2008 found that almost all (94 percent) were agreed that climate change is occurring now, and 84 percent were persuaded that it was […]

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Shallow Betting Markets – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction” – Nate Silver

November 23rd, 2012 · Comments Off on Shallow Betting Markets – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction” – Nate Silver · Data, Prediction

I don’t know that political betting markets like Intrade are all that good right now—the standard of competition is fairly low. Intrade is becoming more popular, but it is still small potatoes compared with the stock market or Las Vegas. In the weeks leading up to the Super Tuesday primaries in March 2012, for instance, […]

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More Data Means More Noise – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 21st, 2012 · Comments Off on More Data Means More Noise – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Data, Prediction, Statistical Inference, Statistics

As there is an exponential increase in the amount of available information, there is likewise an exponential increase in the number of hypotheses to investigate. For instance, the U.S. government now publishes data on about 45,000 economic statistics. If you want to test for relationships between all combinations of two pairs of these statistics—is there […]

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Bayes’ Theorem – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 21st, 2012 · Comments Off on Bayes’ Theorem – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Policy, Prediction, Statistics

Bayes’s theorem is concerned with conditional probability. That is, it tells us the probability that a theory or hypothesis is true if some event has happened. Suppose you are living with a partner and come home from a business trip to discover a strange pair of underwear in your dresser drawer. You will probably ask […]

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In Medicine, Stupid Models Kill People – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 20th, 2012 · Comments Off on In Medicine, Stupid Models Kill People – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Data, Prediction, Statistical Inference, Statistics

Much of the most thoughtful work on the use and abuse of statistical models and the proper role of prediction comes from people in the medical profession. That is not to say there is nothing on the line when an economist makes a prediction, or a seismologist does. But because of medicine’s intimate connection with […]

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Markets for Predicting Macro-Economic Variables – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 20th, 2012 · Comments Off on Markets for Predicting Macro-Economic Variables – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Economics, Policy, Prediction

One of the most basic applications might simply be markets for predicting macroeconomic variables like GDP and unemployment. There are already a variety of direct and indirect ways to bet on things like inflation, interest rates, and commodities prices, but no high-volume market for GDP exists. There could be a captive audience for these markets: […]

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The Narrative and Political Prediction – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 17th, 2012 · Comments Off on The Narrative and Political Prediction – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Electoralism, Journalism, Newspapers, Politics, Prediction, Psychology, Spin, The Media

You can get lost in the narrative. Politics may be especially susceptible to poor predictions precisely because of its human elements: a good election engages our dramatic sensibilities.

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Hedgehogs and Forecasting – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 17th, 2012 · Comments Off on Hedgehogs and Forecasting – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Elitism, Prediction, Statistical Inference, Statistics

In fact, a little knowledge may be a dangerous thing in the hands of a hedgehog with a Ph.D. One of Tetlock’s more remarkable findings is that, while foxes tend to get better at forecasting with experience, the opposite is true of hedgehogs: their performance tends to worsen as they pick up additional credentials. Tetlock […]

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Out of Sample Problems – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 16th, 2012 · Comments Off on Out of Sample Problems – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Causation and Correlation, Data, Prediction, Statistics

But forecasters often resist considering these out-of-sample problems. When we expand our sample to include events further apart from us in time and space, it often means that we will encounter cases in which the relationships we are studying did not hold up as well as we are accustomed to. The model will seem to […]

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