Blogging the Bookshelf

Blogging my bookshelf – one book at a time

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Entries Tagged as 'Data'

Connecting Subjective and Objective Reality – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 14th, 2012 · Comments Off on Connecting Subjective and Objective Reality – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Data, Prediction, Statistical Inference, Statistics

Prediction is important because it connects subjective and objective reality. Karl Popper, the philosopher of science, recognized this view. For Popper, a hypothesis was not scientific unless it was falsifiable—meaning that it could be tested in the real world by means of a prediction.

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There is no Such Thing as Perfectly Objective Predictions – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 13th, 2012 · Comments Off on There is no Such Thing as Perfectly Objective Predictions – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Causation and Correlation, Data, Modelling, Prediction, Statistical Inference, Statistics

Some of you may be uncomfortable with a premise that I have been hinting at and will now state explicitly: we can never make perfectly objective predictions. They will always be tainted by our subjective point of view.

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The Diminishing Returns of Additional Information – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 13th, 2012 · Comments Off on The Diminishing Returns of Additional Information – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Causation and Correlation, Data, Modelling, Statistical Inference, Statistics

Our biological instincts are not always very well adapted to the information rich modern world. Unless we work actively to become aware of the biases we introduce, the returns to additional information may be minimal—or diminishing.

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Tetlock’s Study of Expert Prediction – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 12th, 2012 · Comments Off on Tetlock’s Study of Expert Prediction – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Data, Journalism, Newspapers, Politics, The Media

A long-term study by Philip E. Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania found that when political scientists claimed that a political outcome had absolutely no chance of occurring, it nevertheless happened about 15 percent of the time. (The political scientists are probably better than television pundits, however.)

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Numbers Have No Way of Speaking For Themselves – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 12th, 2012 · Comments Off on Numbers Have No Way of Speaking For Themselves – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Causation and Correlation, Data, Modelling, Prediction, Statistical Inference, Statistics

The numbers have no way of speaking for themselves. We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning. Like Caesar, we may construe them in self-serving ways that are detached from their objective reality.

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Men May Construe Things After Their Fashion – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 11th, 2012 · Comments Off on Men May Construe Things After Their Fashion – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Data, Prediction, Psychology, Quotes, Statistical Inference, Statistics

[But] men may construe things after their fashion / Clean from the purpose of the things themselves,” Shakespeare warns us through the voice of Cicero—good advice for anyone seeking to pluck through their newfound wealth of information. It was hard to tell the signal from the noise. The story the data tells us is often […]

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