Blogging the Bookshelf

Blogging my bookshelf – one book at a time

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Entries Tagged as 'Causation and Correlation'

Out of Sample Problems – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 16th, 2012 · Comments Off on Out of Sample Problems – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Causation and Correlation, Data, Prediction, Statistics

But forecasters often resist considering these out-of-sample problems. When we expand our sample to include events further apart from us in time and space, it often means that we will encounter cases in which the relationships we are studying did not hold up as well as we are accustomed to. The model will seem to […]

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There is no Such Thing as Perfectly Objective Predictions – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 13th, 2012 · Comments Off on There is no Such Thing as Perfectly Objective Predictions – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Causation and Correlation, Data, Modelling, Prediction, Statistical Inference, Statistics

Some of you may be uncomfortable with a premise that I have been hinting at and will now state explicitly: we can never make perfectly objective predictions. They will always be tainted by our subjective point of view.

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The Diminishing Returns of Additional Information – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 13th, 2012 · Comments Off on The Diminishing Returns of Additional Information – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Causation and Correlation, Data, Modelling, Statistical Inference, Statistics

Our biological instincts are not always very well adapted to the information rich modern world. Unless we work actively to become aware of the biases we introduce, the returns to additional information may be minimal—or diminishing.

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Numbers Have No Way of Speaking For Themselves – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 12th, 2012 · Comments Off on Numbers Have No Way of Speaking For Themselves – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver · Causation and Correlation, Data, Modelling, Prediction, Statistical Inference, Statistics

The numbers have no way of speaking for themselves. We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning. Like Caesar, we may construe them in self-serving ways that are detached from their objective reality.

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