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Shallow Betting Markets – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction” – Nate Silver

November 23rd, 2012 · No Comments · Data, Prediction

I don’t know that political betting markets like Intrade are all that good right now—the standard of competition is fairly low. Intrade is becoming more popular, but it is still small potatoes compared with the stock market or Las Vegas. In the weeks leading up to the Super Tuesday primaries in March 2012, for instance, about $1.6 million in shares were traded there; by contrast, $8 million is traded in the New York Stock Exchange in a single second. The biggest profit made by any one trader from his Super Tuesday bets was about $9,000, which is not enough to make a living, let alone to get rich.

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