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The Limited Accuracy of Polls in Primary Contests – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 18th, 2012 · No Comments · Electoralism, Politics

During the 2008 Democratic primaries, the average poll missed by about eight points, far more than implied by its margin of error. The problems in polls of the Republican primaries of 2012 may have been even worse. In many of the major states, in fact—including Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Washington, Colorado, Ohio, Alabama, and Mississippi—the candidate ahead in the polls a week before the election lost.

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