Blogging the Bookshelf

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Hedgehogs and Forecasting – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 17th, 2012 · No Comments · Elitism, Prediction, Statistical Inference, Statistics

In fact, a little knowledge may be a dangerous thing in the hands of a hedgehog with a Ph.D. One of Tetlock’s more remarkable findings is that, while foxes tend to get better at forecasting with experience, the opposite is true of hedgehogs: their performance tends to worsen as they pick up additional credentials. Tetlock believes the more facts hedgehogs have at their command, the more opportunities they have to permute and manipulate them in ways that confirm their biases.

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