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Tetlock’s Study of Expert Prediction – “The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction”, Nate Silver

November 12th, 2012 · No Comments · Data, Journalism, Newspapers, Politics, The Media

A long-term study by Philip E. Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania found that when political scientists claimed that a political outcome had absolutely no chance of occurring, it nevertheless happened about 15 percent of the time. (The political scientists are probably better than television pundits, however.)

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